Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring-to-fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer. Closed sales typically peak in May or June with about 38-40 homes in this peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August.
Have the pandemic and high-interest rates of 2023 affected this cycle? Read on and find out. The analysis of the Almaden Valley real estate trends on this page include the fourth quarter + January (Oct – Dec 2022) and are updated each quarter, next update April 2023 with Q1 closed stats.
What is your Almaden real estate worth? We will do a local analysis of your Almaden Valley property and keep you informed of the value of your home regularily with a tool that is more accurate than Zillow! Let's us know about your property and we will get details back to you.
How has Almaden Valley real estate performed over the last several years?
With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see the yellow line in the chart below), Almaden Valley homes for sale experienced multiple offers. This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. In June 2018 inventory increased back to normal levels and sales slowed, shifting the intense market momentum.
Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years. This kept prices low in 2019.
2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings. There was a small impact in the market due to COVID-19 Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) but then Almaden Valley Homes for sale picked up again and held strong through the end of 2020.
2021 started off with very low inventory which could not seem to build due to the extremely strong number of sales. The 3rd quarter of 2021 finally showed some signs of inventory increasing, but by the end of the 4th quarter, we were greeted with record-low inventory instead! The low inventory started a supply and demand challenge and home price overbidding took off.
2022 started off with extermely low inventory which could not keep up with the extremely strong number of sales. Multiple offers and overbidding became the norm which drove a 6.9% increase in the average prices of homes in just 3 months! (January to March 2022) The average price in March 2022 was at $2,505,320 making it one of the strongest sellers’ markets we have ever seen in Almaden Valley.
Then rising interest rates (never before have interest rates risen 3% in less than 12months) and decreasing stock prices felt in May took many buyers out of the market. As you would expect, Almaden Valley real estate closed sales numbers reflected this adjustment, drastically decreasing below normal levels for July and August. With the backing up inventory of homes for sale in Almaden Valley, price pressure was put on sellers. Eventually priced adjusted for the rising interest rates yet Almaden Valley closed home sales dropped signifcantly into the winter months leaving January 2023 with lower sales.
Where are current Almaden Valley home prices?
The median price in January 2023 for Almaden Valley was $2,387,500. The average price in this same month (January 2023) was $2,693,440. Homes closed in this month sold below list price with the average sales price to list price ratio of 95% of the asking price. The analysis of the Almaden Valley real estate trends on this page include the fourth quarter + January (Oct – Dec 2022) and are updated each quarter, next update April 2023 with Q1 closed stats.
Compared to Almaden Valley prices 3 years ago (pre-pandemic), the market today is up 43% (January 2020 median, $1,662,500).
Please note that prices in Almaden typically peak each spring due to school year cycles and registration dates.
Why do Almaden Valley real estate prices fluctuate so much?
Prices vary quite a bit month to month in Almaden Valley on the above chart due the large range of sales prices (Under $1M to over $5M) and a low number of sales each month. To see the general direction of market prices, please refer to the fuchsia dotted line which depicts the 6-month rolling average of the median price.
To have a better understanding of the greater San Jose house price trends, please refer to the San Jose Housing Market data page.
For the current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.
What is your Almaden real estate worth? We will do a local analysis of your Almaden Valley property and keep you informed of the value of your home regularily with a tool that is more accurate than Zillow! Let's us know about your property and we will get details back to you.
Which direction is the Almaden Real Estate Trends heading?
Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market. As of January 2023, the DOI in Almaden Valley was at 75 days. This metric has grown as the closed sales numbers for the last few monthshave decreased. Typical January Almaden Valley real estate days of inventory is higher but we have not seen this high since February 2019.
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What is the Almaden Real Estate Market outlook for 2023?
The overall trend of the Almaden real estate market is positive moving forward. Almaden Valley is a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect Almaden real estate inventory to stay relatively low in 2023, yet buyers are actively shopping in this area. Due to a lower supply and good demand, the current Almaden valley housing market will continue to maintain value in 2023, possibly ending the year with slight ~2% year over year appreciation.
This prediction is based on the metrics below in conjunction with higher interest rates, and steady demand heading into the spring season. High-tech-employed home buyers can afford Almaden Valley and many are going to the office only a few days a week. The larger lots and views of the hills plus numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the Almaden area.
Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 3 years are experiencing nice equity gains. If you are considering selling, keep in mind today's buyers are particular about finishes and home upgrades in Almaden Valley. Today’s Almaden homebuyers are looking for clean, well-cared for and move-in ready homes unless the property is priced very aggressively. Want to talk about what that means? Setup a 15 minute call with our team.
This article is updated once a quarter (next one mid-April 2023 with data through end of March 2023). To listen to more recent monthly updates on video, visit my Almaden Market update YouTube playlist or the latest market metrics are below.