Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends
Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring-to-fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer. Closed sales typically peak in May or June with about 38-40 homes in this peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August.
Have high-interest rates of 2023 affected this cycle? Read on and find out. Stay in touch with our monthly market updates by signing up for our newsletter!
Tune in to the video below to hear a quick analysis of the Almaden Valley real estate trends through the past full month of closed sales. This video is updated around the 10th of each month. Weekly data is shared below.
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This market statistics data is updated weekly.
See full interactive charts or Scroll down for a historical perspective of the Almaden Valley Real Estate trends.
Almaden Valley Market Statistics - Closed through August 2023
Below is a chart comparing the numbers of homes for sale (yellow line) in Almaden Valley with the previous month's sales (green bar) and closed sale prices. Keep in mind the prices lag by 30 days since a typical escrow is 30 days long.
Where are current Almaden Valley real estate prices?
The median closed price for Almaden homes for sale in August 2023 was $2,180,000. The average price in this same month (August 2023) was $2,198,300. Almaden Valley Homes closed in this month sold above list price with the average sales price to list price ratio of 101.6% of the asking price. Compared to Almaden Valley prices 3 years ago (during pandemic), the market today is up 32% (August 2020 median, $1,642,500).
Please note that prices in Almaden typically peak each spring due to school year cycles and school district registration dates.
What is your Almaden real estate worth? We will do a local analysis of your Almaden Valley property and keep you informed of the value of your home regularily with a tool that is more accurate than Zillow! Let's us know about your property and we will get details back to you.
The historical analysis of the Almaden Valley real estate trends below are updated quarterly (above sections updated monthly). This analysis includes the second quarter of 2023 (closed data through July 2023) and is updated each quarter, next update October 2023 with Q2 closed stats.
How has Almaden Valley real estate performed over the last several years?
With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see the yellow line in the chart below), Almaden Valley homes for sale experienced multiple offers. This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. In June 2018 inventory increased back to normal levels and sales slowed, shifting the intense market momentum.
Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years. This kept prices low in 2019.
2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings. There was a small impact in the market due to COVID-19 Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) but then Almaden Valley Homes for sale picked up again and held strong through the end of 2020.
2021 started off with very low inventory which could not seem to build due to the extremely strong number of sales. The 3rd quarter of 2021 finally showed some signs of inventory increasing, but by the end of the 4th quarter, we were greeted with record-low inventory instead! The low inventory started a supply and demand challenge and home price overbidding took off.
2022 started off with extermely low inventory which could not keep up with the extremely strong number of sales fueled by record low interest rates. Multiple offers and overbidding became the norm which drove a 6.9% increase in the average prices of homes in just 3 months! (January to March 2022) The average price in March 2022 was at $2,505,320 making it one of the strongest sellers’ markets we have ever seen in Almaden Valley.
Then historically fast-rising interest rates (never before have interest rates risen 3% in less than 12 months) and decreasing stock prices took many buyers out of the market. As you would expect, Almaden Valley real estate closed sales numbers reflected this adjustment, drastically decreasing below normal levels for July and August. With the backing up inventory of homes for sale in Almaden Valley, price pressure was put on sellers. Eventually prices adjusted for the rising interest rates yet Almaden Valley closed home sales dropped signifcantly below normal for the winter months.
January and February 2023 had a slow start to Almaden Valley home sales with March finally picking up to closer to normal seasonal sales numbers. Then interest rates continued to climb pushing many buyers out of the Almaden Valley price range. Sales therefore dropped but so did inventory to unusually low numbers so 2023 is still a strong sellers market.
Why do Almaden Valley real estate prices fluctuate so much?
Almaden Valley home prices vary quite a bit month to month due the large range of sales prices (Under $1M to over $5M) and a low number of sales each month. To see the general direction of market prices, please refer to the fuchsia dotted line which depicts the 6-month rolling average of the median price.
To have a better understanding of the greater San Jose house price trends, please refer to the San Jose Housing Market data page.
For the current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.
What is your Almaden real estate worth? We will do a local analysis of your Almaden Valley property and keep you informed of the value of your home regularily with a tool that is more accurate than Zillow! Let's us know about your property and we will get details back to you.
Which direction is the Almaden Real Estate Trends heading?
Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market. As of July 2023, the DOI in Almaden Valley was at 25 days, showing the local market is a strong sellers market. This metric has grown as the closed sales numbers for the last few monthshave decreased. Typical Almaden Valley real estate days of inventory is near 2 months (60 days).
What is the Almaden Real Estate Market outlook for 2023?
The overall trend of the Almaden real estate market is positive moving forward. Almaden Valley is a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect Almaden real estate inventory to return to more normal in 2023. Buyers are actively shopping in this area so demand should remain consistent. Due to the normal market conditions, the current Almaden valley housing market will continue to maintain value in 2023, possibly ending the year with slight ~2% year over year appreciation.
This prediction is based on the metrics below in conjunction with higher interest rates, and steady demand heading into the spring season. High-tech-employed home buyers can afford Almaden Valley and many are going to the office only a few days a week. The larger lots and views of the hills plus numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the Almaden area.
Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 3 years are experiencing nice equity gains. If you are considering selling, keep in mind today's buyers are particular about finishes and home upgrades in Almaden Valley. Today’s Almaden homebuyers are looking for clean, well-cared for and move-in ready homes unless the property is priced very aggressively.
Want to talk about what that means? Setup a 15 minute call with our team or considering selling in 6-12mos, then let’s plan the home prep now to get highest possible price when you are ready to sell!
This article is updated once a quarter (next one mid-October 2023)