Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends 2021

Almaden Valley Real Estate Trends

Almaden Valley of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with the peak number of sales in early summer. Closed sales typically peak in May or June with about 38-40 homes in this peak month. This cycle is driven by the first day of school starting mid-August.

How has the Almaden Valley market recently performed?

With the extremely low inventory experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), Almaden Valley experienced multiple offers. This low inventory and strong demand spurred a quick increase in home prices. In June 2018 inventory increased and sales slowed, changing the intense market momentum.

Spring 2019 in Almaden Valley started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory and increasing sales. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April in the past 5 years. This kept prices low in 2019.

2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with drastically increasing pending sales and a strong number of home sale closings. There was a small effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) but then sales picked up again and held strong through the end of 2020.

2021 started off with very low inventory which could not seem to build due to the extremely strong number of sales. The third quarter of 2021 finally showed some signs of inventory increasing, but at the same time sales began to drop seasonally. July through September closed 94 home sales compared to 2020 third quarter of 102. The average third quarter homes sales in Almaden Valley for 2017-2019 is 75, so even though 2021 3rd quarter is slightly lower in sales that 2020, 2021 is still relatively to recent years doing quite well.

 

What are Almaden Valley prices?

The median price in September 2021 for Almaden Valley was $2,050,000. The average price in this same month (September 2021) was $2,094,600. The average sales price to list price ratio averaged at 104.9% of asking price.

Compared to the Almaden Valley pre-pandemic prices, the market today is up 30% (September 2019 median, $1,570,000). Year over year, prices are up 20%.

Please note that prices in Almaden are cyclical with peak prices typically in the late spring. To see the general direction of market prices, please refer to the fuchsia dotted line which depicts the 6-month rolling average of the median price. For current month market statistics and metrics, visit the raw data below or watch my monthly Almaden market update video.

Which direction is the market trending?

Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. Days of inventory is a simple calculation using the inventory and current rate of sales. This metric quantifies how long it would take to sell all available homes on the market. As of September 2021, the DOI in Almaden Valley is has increased to 30 days. The sellers’ market is starting to slow a bit with increase of inventory in and at the same time, a decrease in the number of sales. Until there is a significant increase in inventory though, I expect prices to continue to appreciate.

What is the market outlook?

The overall trend of the Almaden Valley market is positive moving forward. Almaden Valley is a sought-after neighborhood for families looking for good public schools and an outdoor lifestyle. I expect the current market to hold value in 2021. 2022 will continue to appreciate but likely at a bit slower rate than the 20% we saw this year.

This prediction is based on the metrics below in conjunction with continued historically low interest rates and increasing demand from Millennial homebuyers. High-tech-employed home buyers can afford Almaden Valley and are mostly working remotely for their jobs or moving back to the office only a few days a week. The larger lots and views of the hills plus numerous corporate development projects in downtown San Jose (less than 10 miles away) continue to bring home buyers to the area.

Sellers who have lived in Almaden Valley more than 18 months are experiencing nice equity gains. Even after the softening experienced in later part of 2018 and into 2019, homeowners who moved in late 2017/early 2018 still have great equity.

Buyers are particular about the options in Almaden Valley. Today’s homebuyers are looking for updated and move-in ready homes unless the property is priced very aggressively. Pending sales have been extremely strong in 2021, with a huge 42 pending homes in September, higher than what is typically seen during this season. I expect inventory to hold through Quarter 4 of 2021.

This article is updated once a quarter (next one January 2022 with data through end of December). To listen to more recent monthly updates on video, visit my Almaden Market update YouTube playlist or the latest market metrics are below.

Willow Glen Real Estate Market Trends

Willow Glen of San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with peak sales in early summer (around June or July with 60+ sales) and then slowing significantly down in November, December and January (with a low of 20-30 closings in January).

How has the Willow Glen market recently performed?

In all of 2017 and 2018 Willow Glen experienced extremely low inventory (see yellow line for inventory in the graph below), and multiple offers. These multiple offers spurred a quick increase in home prices.

In late summer of 2018, these record high prices plus increasing interest rates had buyers waiting on the sidelines. With the number of sales decreasing earlier than typical in the year’s sales cycle, prices softened through the rest of 2018.

Also, interesting to note is the uniquely low inventory from December 2016 to May 2018 where the typical trend reversed with more sales than inventory at a given time. This unusual occurrence showed how unique and active the market was.

In the later part of 2020 the same phenomenon of a low inventory, high sales market showed up once again and continued through 2021.

September 2021 closed sales in Willow Glen were lower than September 2020, but 2021 year to date is 43% higher than 2020 sales in the first 9 months.

What is the CURRENT average price?
The average PRICE (orange line) in September 2021 for Willow Glen was $1,777,980 with the average sale price to list price ratio at 106.2% of asking price. Willow Glen market average price peaked in April 2018 ($1,765,470), again in March 2020 ($1,807,940) and in 2021 surpassed those peak prices once again. September values softened a bit from the typical summer peak prices. Check out the current month’s data in the stats below.

Which direction is the market trending?

Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. As of September 2021, the DOI in Willow Glen is 16 days; still a strong sellers’ market. This inventory and demand imbalance is likely going to soften in October, November and December as demand goes down.

Until there is a significant increase in inventory, I expect prices to continue to appreciate due to the demand of young millennial buyers and continued historically low interest rates.

Hopefully the immense equity gain over the past 10 years will encourage sellers to continue to supply the market with inventory, so buyers have options. The strong unemployment numbers help to keep up the strong pending & closed sales.

This article is updated once a quarter (next update January 2022 with data through end of December). To see more recent updates take a look at the market metrics below or watch my overall San Jose Market overview video.

San Jose CA Real Estate Market Trends

San Jose, CA follows a traditional spring to fall sales cycle with peak closed sales in early to mid-summer (May- July). San Jose 10-year average is about 450 sales per month with the summer peak month near 600 homes.

How has the San Jose market recently performed?

With the extremely low, unprecedented inventory levels experienced in all areas of San Jose in late 2017 and early 2018 (see yellow line in below chart), most areas and properties for sale experienced multiple offers. The competitive buying environment spurred a quick increase in home prices. PRICES in San Jose peaked in May 2018 and then softened quickly in the later part of 2018 due to the return of more normal inventory levels and an increase in interest rates.

Spring 2019 in San Jose started off as a typical sales season with ramping inventory, sales and increasing prices. In April 2019, inventory continued to increase as usual, but sales slowed down to the lowest number for April since 2008! As a result of the market changes in 2019 and a rebalancing of the unusual activity from 2017/18, prices returned back to levels similar to those seen in the Fall of 2017.

2020 started off as an extremely healthy market with low inventory and strong number of home sale closings in February, March and April. But the effect of Shelter-in-place (which started locally on March 17, 2020) showed up in the April pending sales numbers and then May closings. May 2020 pending sales were back to normal seasonal levels and actually continued strong through the rest of 2020.

The strong demand seen in Summer 2020 has continued through 2021. In January through September 2020 there were 3060 single family home sales. In 2021 same timeframe, sales are up to 4321 (41% higher!). While San Jose experiences more sales than usual, the inventory remains low, similar to the market of 2017 where more sales occur than inventory is available at a time.

What are San Jose prices?

The average PRICE in September 2021 for San Jose was $1,507,610. The median price in September 2021 was $1,425,000 with the average sales price to list price ratio of 108.1% of asking price. Compared to the San Jose market peak of May 2018 ($1,366,990 average price), the market today is up 10.2% to a new record level ($1,507,610).

For current month market statistics and metrics, visit the data below or watch my monthly video update. Want this info sent to you each month? Signup for the San Jose Monthly Market email.

Which direction is the market trending?

Sales in San Jose in 2021 have been extremely strong, 1267 more units year to date than 2020. Inventory is near records lows and sales are very strong. Young Millennial homebuyers are aging into homebuying and are extra motivated to make offers due to the historically low interest rates.

The San Jose market hit a record number of pending sales for September 2021 (688), a level we have not seen any month since May 2013! The strong demand will help to consume the new inventory in Q4 and help to keep prices strong.
Days of Inventory (DOI) is a monthly metric I follow to understand the speed and direction of the market. As of September 2021, the DOI in San Jose is down to 17 days, a strong sellers market. Until there is a significant increase in inventory, I expect prices to continue to appreciate, expected about 5% increase in 2022.

What is the market outlook?

The overall trend of the San Jose market is positive moving forward. San Jose is still one of the most affordable areas of Silicon Valley and is home to a revamping downtown. The market is currently fueled by high demand by young buyers, lack of inventory and great interest rates. The inventory in 2021 has not yet exceeded 350 single family homes for sale at once. Will the inventory increase in Q4 2021? Stay tuned with monthly updates by watching my San Jose Market update videos, signing up to be emailed a monthly update or visit the current month’s market metrics below.

This article is updated once a quarter (next update January 2022 with data through end of December).